The Raptors’ quest for glory continues against the acknowledged Beast of the East, the Cavaliers. Is this series going to end quickly?
Two cities whose NBA teams have won exactly the same number of league championships (hint: rhymes with “hero”) play Game 1 of their Conference finals tonight. The winning squad gets a chance at the ultimate prize.
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The Cleveland Cavaliers have played the minimum number of games to arrive at this spot, whereas the Toronto Raptors have played the maximum. Cleveland swatted aside the Detroit Pistons, then the Atlanta Hawks, in 4-game sweeps, and many observers are calling for them to need just that number again.
The Toronto Raptors required game-7 victories on home court against the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat to advance. Despite the grit they have displayed in getting further than ever before in franchise history, they are colossal underdogs against the rested and healthy Cavs.
Let’s quickly break down this series in a table:
| Position | Cavaliers | Raptors | Edge | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Guard | Kyrie Irving | Kyle Lowry | even | Irving is younger, faster & taller. Lowry is very smart, a solid rebounder(!), & his shot has returned. |
| Shooting Guard | J.R. Smith | DeMar DeRozan | Cavaliers | Smith is like Joe Johnson with range beyond the arc. DeRozan will take more shots, but Smith may amass more points. |
| Small Forward | LeBron James | DeMarre Carroll | um...not close. Cavaliers | Carroll needs to stay out of foul trouble, & make some 3s. LeBron does whatever he wants. |
| Power Forward | Kevin Love | Patrick Patterson | Cavaliers | Love is what 2-Pat wants to be someday. Until then, Kevin has a substantial edge. |
| Centre | Tristan Thompson | Bismack Biyombo | Raptors, barely | Bis hasn't faced a relentless force on the boards like Thompson in the playoffs. It's going to be a low-post war. |
| Rotation | I. Shumpert, M. Dellavedova, R. Jefferson, C. Frye, T. Mozgov | T. Ross, C. Joseph, N. Powell, J. Thompson (J. Valanciunas if healhty) | Cavaliers | The loss of Valanciunas weakens Raptors here. Cavs have veterans, & can go big or small. |
| Coach | Tyronn Lue | Dwane Casey | Raptors | Casey has shown he can motivate when needed, & handle adversity. Lue hasn't been challenged so far. |
| Momentum & Intangibles | Cavaliers | Cleveland is well-rested and supremely confident, with good reason. The Raptors are tired and banged up. |
If my analysis is accurate, the teams are closely matched enough that the series should need more than 5 games to decide. That said, something extraordinary will need to happen for the Raptors to win 4 games before the Cavaliers do.
What could create an upset?
The Cavaliers’ absurdly hot playoff shooting could cool off. They lead all playoff teams in 3-point makes per game and percentage (16.8 and 46.2, respectively), which is a huge feat. Leading Golden State and San Antonio in those stats? Wow.
Kevin Love was sidelined for the duration of the playoffs last year due to injury. They can strike at any time to anyone.
Lightning could strike a Raptors player. Terrence Ross has a 51-point game in his history. Could he suddenly start to drain every other long ball he tried?
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They can’t shoot me for standing by my team in their toughest series. My brain and everyone else’s says Cleveland takes this series in 5 or 6.
My heart says the Raptors will dig deep and surprise the world. Toronto in 7. That’s where I am.