Forecasting new NBA season a formidable task

We’re in the throes of NBA season forecasting, and there’s something different about this year.

Every year I offer an NBA season forecast, which is my best guess of each team’s wins and losses, along with a few sentences pointing out issues of particular concern or interest. Of course, we pay special attention to the Toronto Raptors around here. As a result, we omit the usual thumbnail sketch in favour of a full-blown prognostication.

Alexander Slamen has already commenced in-depth examinations of every team, and I urge our readers to examine his work. We’re continuing his series this week with a look at the Central Division.

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Anyway, my forecast is under development. While I was plowing through my research, I came to a realization. The 2016-17 season, which tips off in late October, is destined to be the most unpredictable in my memory. I’ve published these forecasts for years, and never struggled so much with clouds in my crystal ball.

The top teams (Golden State, Cleveland) and the bottom dwellers (Brooklyn, the Lakers) appear straightforward. Everyone else – who knows?

Headscratching teams galore

Consider the New York Knicks. They are attempting an on-the-fly rebuild. Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah are no longer Chicago Bulls (another quandary outfit). If those two can stay healthy, Carmelo Anthony can hold back Father Time, Kristaps Porzingis doesn’t get lost as the stars(?) pass to each other…the Knicks might be playoff-bound. But they could just as easily collapse under the weight of a thousand nagging injuries.

Nov 10, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Knicks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6) goes up against Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) at Air Canada Centre. The Knicks beat the Raptors 111-109. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /

The Bulls boast star power galore: Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade have joined Jimmy Butler. Look out, you smug Cleveland and Toronto fans, the boys from the Windy City are back! Don’t be so sure. I haven’t any idea how all the alpha males are going to play together, and who’s going to score for them inside? Are Bobby Portis and Doug McDermott ready to take giant leaps? This team could win 48 or 28, and one could make a credible case for either result.

The Atlanta Hawks are another puzzler. Does Dwight Howard have anything left, or is he destined for a sad, slow fadeout to his career? Is Dennis Schroder truly ready to be a dominant point guard? Kyle Korver disappointed last season. Can he bounce back?

So many questions – will the Pistons’ Andre Drummond ever learn to shoot free throws…are the Orlando Magic finally going to take a step forward…will Joel Embiid step on the court for the 76ers…can the young T’Wolves cope with a hectoring coach like Tom Thibodeau?

The Raptors aren’t exactly easy to figure either, despite their relative lack of activity this off-season. Will Jared Sullinger be the power forward we’ve been waiting for, or will he eat his way to the end of the bench? Will Terrence Ross find his game, finally? What is Jonas Valanciunas’s future following a disappointing Olympics performance?

We will continue to publish our forecasts, with as much integrity and thoroughness as we can muster. But we are going to be wrong, possibly very much so, about a lot of teams.

Editor’s Note: Following a brief lakeside vacation, I’m back. My apologies to our readership and my writers for the inability to connect.