Raptors must decide if Norman Powell starts, or Valanciunas

The Raptors must decide how to defend against the Cavaliers’ array of shooters. Should Norman continue to start in a small-ball lineup, or should Jonas Valanciunas be re-inserted?

A different Toronto Raptors team faces the Cleveland Cavaliers, who ousted them in 6 games last year. We’re seeing them earlier than in 2016, because the Cavs didn’t end up with the top seed. That honour went to the Boston Celtics.

Bismack Biyombo was a Raptor then, performing the role the less charismatic Serge Ibaka will this go-round. Serge may not be the rebounding monster Big Biz was, but he’s a peer as a shot-blocker, and incomparably stronger on the offensive end. The idea of Biz taking a 3-pointer brings a shudder to the spines of Raptors fans everywhere, but we’re quite comfortable when Serge lets fly.

Otherwise, the starters are the same, just as the Cavaliers’ group is. Or are they? The Raptors won the last three games against the Bucks after switching Norman Powell for Jonas Valanciunas. Will coach Dwane Casey revert to the larger lineup?

There are arguments for and against. The Cavaliers are not a long team; their tallest starter is Kevin Love, who is 6’10” in shoes. If they are going to defeat the Raptors (as everyone seems to think is inevitable), they will need to be successful shooting 3-balls. Powell would seem more likely to defend energetically. Let’s face it; if you need someone to chase a dead-eye shooter off the line before he releases the ball, JV isn’t your first choice.

But he is if you want to grab rebounds. The Cavs have a beast on the boards, a proud Torontonian named Tristan Thompson. He helped his team sweep the Indiana Pacers in Round 1 by  grabbing 6.3 offensive rebounds Per Game [PG], which was more than the rest of his team combined. Second-chance opportunities are hugely important for Cleveland, as they create open looks. The Cavs averaged 33.5 shots from beyond the arc PG, and made 13.5, against Indiana. By contrast, the Raptors tried 24.5 3-balls PG against the Bucks, making 8.5. That’s 15 points to Cleveland off the hop.

Make up your mind, Dwane

So there’s the dilemma: make life more difficult for Cleveland’s boatload of shooters (we haven’t touched yet on their scary second-unit guys; that will have to wait till tomorrow) by starting Norman, or grab more boards with Jonas back in his accustomed center position.

Ah, the joys of being a coach. Dwane Casey, here’s the solution, and you can tell the players it came from me if it backfires…you must start…Norman. The clinching factor for me is what I said earlier. The Raptors have won 3 straight games since the lineup juggle announced before Game 3. I’m old-fashioned enough to believe that you don’t break up a successful lineup until it starts to fail. That’s not science, but it is sports.

There will be lots of work for Jonas, and we’ll deal with that on Sunday.