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Raptors coach Dwane Casey: on the hot seat (Y/N)

By Brian Boake

LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 13: Dwane Casey of the Toronto Raptors is seen at the game between the Toronto Raptors and the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2017 Las Vegas Summer League game on July 13, 2017 at the Cox Pavillion in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 13: Dwane Casey of the Toronto Raptors is seen at the game between the Toronto Raptors and the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2017 Las Vegas Summer League game on July 13, 2017 at the Cox Pavillion in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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I haven’t given much thought about whether Dwane Casey is vulnerable to being fired as Raptors head coach. Have I been slightly blind?

I tried to make a provocative headline out of the question which has re-surfaced (or perhaps never gone away) about Dwane Casey’s future in Toronto.

The usually reliable Ringer offered their thoughts on NBA coaches who may not last the season, and I was surprised to see Casey’s name mentioned. While the thought was brief [20-second timeout: I’m used to sloppy work from U.S. sites about the Raptors. Here’s The Ringer: “They re-signed Serge Ibaka, DeMar Derozan, and Kyle Lowry, but lost glue guys like P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson.” The writer misspelled DeMar’s last name, and didn’t mention his re-signing occurred last summer. Disappointing, to put it mildly.], it got me mulling. Could Casey truly be on a short leash?

My position on firing a coach or GM is similar to what I believe about trading players: unless the guy is messing up hugely, and immediate action is called for, take your time, and ensure you have a replacement waiting in the wings.

MISSISSAUGA, CANADA – APRIL 25: Jerry Stackhouse of the Raptors 905 coaches against the Rio Grande Valley Vipers during Game Two of the D-League Finals at the Hershey Centre on April 25, 2017 in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Ron Turenne/NBAE via Getty Images)
MISSISSAUGA, CANADA – APRIL 25: Jerry Stackhouse of the Raptors 905 coaches against the Rio Grande Valley Vipers during Game Two of the D-League Finals at the Hershey Centre on April 25, 2017 in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Ron Turenne/NBAE via Getty Images) /

To take the second point first, the Raptors would appear to have an heir apparent near at hand. Jerry Stackhouse commenced his coaching career with a bang, leading the Raptors 905 squad to the D-League championship in late April. Stack was twice an All-Star during an 18-year NBA career. He doesn’t have anything to prove about his playing prowess, which is always positive for credibility. Whether he’s truly ready to take over the reins of an NBA team isn’t clear to me. I’d like to see him spend at least two seasons on the front bench of our team before he gets his chance, but Masai Ujiri may not agree.

Anybody else?

From those sitting beside Casey currently, I’d suggest Nick Nurse or Rex Kalamian would be the top candidates. Our team’s President may have someone else in mind who’s not part of the Raptors organization. I can’t comment on that, other than to note there were no coaches canned last season. There aren’t any obvious candidates out of work (I note with amusement Larry Brown’s interest in returning to the wars. Bonne chance, mon ami).

Assuming Masai wants to promote one of our current guys, even temporarily, what would it take to get Casey fired? Let’s consider Dwane’s first two seasons at the Raptors’ helm. He had winning rates of .348 and .415, but those results weren’t held against him. His job was to develop the young players, which he did.

Since 2013-14, he has coached the Raptors to their most successful 4-year stretch, by far. He’s also the franchise leader in playoff wins with 17 (Lenny Wilkens, head man in Vince Carter’s glory years, is second with 8).

Dwane Casey: in trouble if…

All of that is interesting, but won’t protect him should the team get off to a rocky start. Masai has done his job: with Lowry and Ibaka returning, there’s going to be little patience for failure. Furthermore, Masai wants to see  different offensive looks; a lot less iso-ball, a lot more movement.

That for me will be the tipping point. Should the Raptors barely be above .500 after 35 games, yet showing signs of internalizing their new offense, I think Dwane’s job is safe. But if the team is merely running in place, the drumbeats for change will be deafening.

So will they be if the kids don’t improve. Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl all need bigger roles. They may not all succeed, but they can’t all fail, nor wilt on the bench.

Simultaneous winning with a new-look offense and player development – a tall order, but one which a veteran coach like Casey should welcome. If he doesn’t, or if he can’t make it work, Masai won’t hesitate.

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