Raptors need to figure out what’s wrong with DeRozan’s shot
Despite leading the Miami Heat 2-1 in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, the Toronto Raptors and their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, have received criticism for struggling offensively.
Fans and former players, including Charles Oakley, have slammed DeRozan especially for taking too many shots.
Oakley’s assessment may be too harsh, but it’s no secret that DeRozan is scoring nearly 5 fewer points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season, is shooting almost 11% less efficiently, and getting fewer free throw attempts per game.
Despite playing less effectively, DeRozan is a two-time All-Star and a player that Magic Johnson mentioned in the same conversation as LeBron James and Kevin Durant when asked who his Lakers should target in free agency. Slump notwithstanding, DeMar possesses tremendous offensive talent, and the league widely respects him.
That talent will be put to the test for the remainder of the Heat/Raptors series, however. Training staff ruled out center Jonas Valanciunas, who has arguably been the Raptors’ best player in the playoffs, for the rest of the series. DeRozan and Lowry must step up in JV’s absence and score more efficiently for Toronto to advance and meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
There isn’t necessarily an easy answer to what’s different about DeRozan’s shot selection in the regular season versus the playoffs. His field goal attempts per game are nearly in line with his regular season totals, so it may be inaccurate to call him a ball hog. His shots just aren’t falling as consistently – he’s shooting 10.8% worse from the field and 17.1% percent worse from behind the arc. Another critical element of his offense, free throws, is down. After averaging 7.1 FTs per game and 8.4 free throw attempts in the regular season, DeRozan is getting to line less frequently and not converting as efficiently when he gets there.
A simple explanation is that in the playoffs, defenses play more aggressively, and referees often find themselves reluctant to call fouls. Miami boasts a strong group of wing defenders who can slow DeMar, and Luol Deng, Dwyane Wade and company deserve some credit for his struggles.
Beyond the quality of competition, however, DeRozan also isn’t taking quite the same shot selection that he did in the regular season. Per player tracking data from NBA.com, DeRozan’s favorite and best shot range in the regular season was from ten feet or closer to the basket.
42.7% of his regular season shot came from this range, and he made 54% of them. This contrasts with taking only 29.4% of his playoff shots from close range and converting 35.6%.
Thus far in the playoffs, DeRozan has taken pull-up jump shots most. 53.2% of his playoff shots have been pull-ups, a shot he’s taken 14.4% more frequently than in the regular season. Taking more pull-up jumpers has not led to more efficient scoring from that range, however, and DeRozan has made only 32.1% of those shots.
In essence, DeRozan is taking fewer of the shots that made him successful in the regular season and more difficult shots. He’s not getting enough of the easy shots that helped him rank eighth in scoring in the regular season.
To improve his production, DeRozan should aim to drive inside more – this will result in better shots and increase the likelihood of drawing fouls. The injury status of Heat center Hassan Whiteside, an elite shot blocker, could help. If Miami is without Whiteside’s presence down low, DeRozan’s task to score could become easier.
Next: Raptors without JV – a survival guide
Finally, perhaps the simplest solution, yet the one hardest to quantity, remains for DeRozan to stay aggressive and confident that his shots will begin to fall. It’s challenging to break out of slumps, but DeRozan’s shooting deserves a lot of credit for positioning Toronto as the second seed in the Eastern Conference.