Raptors [20-8] at Hornets [11-19]: Preview & 3 Keys to victory

The Raptors beat the Hornets three weeks ago when they played at the ACC without Kemba Walker. But now Charlotte is healthy and are at home.

Just two years ago, the Hornets won 48 games and seemed like they had a shot to be a young team on the rise. They were aiming to lock into the same tier as the Raptors right behind the Cavs. They had a star PG (Kemba Walker), and young pieces around him like Frank “the Tank” Kaminsky, Cody Zeller, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Now, despite adding Dwight Howard in the offseason, they’re a total mess. Injuries have piled up to core pieces including Walker, Nicolas Batum, and Zeller, and the Hornets are 11-19 and sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference.

They have arguably more talent than any of the teams hanging around them in the basement (hello, Brooklyn!). Regardless, they’re still five games out of a playoff spot and only showing nascent signs of getting it back together. Despite a solid win on Monday in New York, the Hornets are 3-7 in their last ten. Coach Steve Clifford is also now out indefinitely with health issues and has been replaced by interim coach Stephen Silas.

Last week, Zach Lowe included the Hornets as the number one bullet point in his “10 things I like and don’t like” column. If you’re not sure which side Charlotte fell on, I’ll spoil it for you. They were not a “like.” Lowe criticizes the Kaminsky pick in 2015 and the Hornets’ cap situation. He concludes that the team’s best hope is to get back to being quickly wiped out of the playoffs every year.

Dealing With Kemba Walker

Last time these two teams played on Nov 29, Walker was out, which was a boon for the Raps. Kemba always seems to show up for games versus Toronto. Lowry took full advantage and racked up 36 points. That was his last really great game offensively – since that game his three-ball has been mostly MIA.

Jonas Valanciunas has been hot of late. He’s notched double digits in his last four games and double-doubles in three of them. Against Charlotte he’ll be needed to defend Dwight Howard. (The same Howard who said that the Hornets can learn from the Raptors’ chemistry a couple of weeks ago). The last time these two teams met, JV matched up well with Howard early. But when JV went to the bench, Howard took advantage of Jakob Poeltl and Lucas Nogueira. (That was the game where Lucas Nogueira suffered his calf injury.)

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Besides Howard, the Raptors will also have to defend the Hornets’ other healthy big, Frank Kaminsky. Frank the Tank broke out of a recent slump against the Knicks with 24 points on 10/13 FGs, including four 3s. Between Dwight in the paint and Kaminsky stretching the floor, Dwane Casey is going to have to match up his frontcourt rotation to keep the Hornets from going off.

3 Keys to a Raptors victory:

1. Lowry vs Kemba. If Kemba is fully healthy, he’s every bit Lowry’s equal at the point guard position. He can slash to the rim, he can shoot threes, and he’s great at just generally being a pest. Last year he torched the Raps for 28.8 PPG in their four meetings. As mentioned, when the Raps beat the Hornets last month, Kemba wasn’t in the lineup. With Lowry struggling with his shot lately, it’s crucial that the good Lowry shows up for this one. At the very least he needs to play Kemba to a draw.
2. Contain the bigs. Howard is always a threat on the glass and Valanciunas will need to play big minutes to match up with him tonight. Kaminsky is also coming off a huge game. The Raps need to chase him off the three-point line and take advantage of him on defense.
3. The bench needs to show up. After a hot start to the season, the bench has really fallen off of late. It’s led some people to wonder if teams have learned how to game-plan for them. They might lack the offensive firepower to compete without one of DeMar DeRozan or Kyle Lowry on the floor. Jeremy Lamb and Malik Monk burned the Raptors with five threes between them off the Hornets’ bench last month. Someone on the Raptors bench will need to step up. Delon Wright could be a candidate for a post-injury breakout as he tries to move up the depth chart again.

Prediction: Raptors 112 – Hornets 106. I think Kemba goes off and wins the matchup with Lowry, but the depth of the Raptors weathers the storm. Close game, with the Raptors taking control in the end.