The bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race is a mess. Only 2.5 games separate the fifth-placed Raptors and the Heat in tenth place. It’s a closely contested race to avoid the play-in tournament that the Raptors desperately want to win. Falling into the play-in tournament could quickly end the Raptors’ postseason ambitions before the playoffs even start, and, even if they made it out, they would be stuck with a bad first-round matchup.
Raptors fans won’t be able to rest easy until the very end of the regular season, when the standings are etched in stone, but The Athletic’s John Hollinger offered them a hopeful prediction in his article “Sixers, Raptors and the Eastern Conferences ‘Mid-6’ are in for wild season-ending ride.”
Hollinger outlined the many tiebreakers and different possible scenarios that could decide the Eastern Conference standings, including a wild six-team tie, but also noted, “What I think is more likely, however, is that Atlanta and Toronto carry their slight edge in the standings through the finish line, and the Raptors end up fifth and the Hawks sixth.”
Hollinger’s prediction doesn’t just promise avoiding the feared play-in tournament. It also offers a glimpse of hope for the Raptors’ playoff success.
Finishing fifth promises a chance at first-round success
If the Raptors finish fifth in the Eastern Conference, they will face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round—unless the Cavs somehow jump the Knicks and/or Celtics in the standings. A four-five matchup with Cleveland is the only first-round series that offers the possibility of a trip to the second round for the Raptors.
The Raptors don’t have a great track record against the Celtics and Knicks. Boston beat the Raptors three times this season despite playing all of those games without Jayson Tatum. The Celtics know they can beat the Raptors, and they know what it takes to win in the playoffs. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard all won a championship together in 2024. The Raptors aren’t likely to win that series.
The Raptors also lost four games to the Knicks this season. All four losses were decided by at least 16 points. This is another matchup the Raptors aren’t likely to win in the first round.
Against the Cavaliers, there is some hope, however. The Raptors beat Cleveland three times this season, sweeping the season series. They may not have beaten the team with James Harden in the mix yet, but they have proven that they can match up well with the frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen and overcome big scoring games from Donovan Mitchell.