Coming into the season, we all make bold predictions or have takes that might get reality-checked three games in, but that’s just the fun of how unpredictable the NBA is. Nothing’s more humbling than making a prediction, getting so bought in on a team, and then having to call it a swing-and-a-miss 10 games into the season. That’s exactly what I’m here to do today, as the Miami Heat had me completely fooled coming into the season.
Throughout the offseason, I scanned every roster and coaching staff out East to figure out which teams the Raptors wouldn’t want to see come playoff time. The No. 1 team I landed on as a nightmare playoff matchup for Toronto was Miami, as I projected their defense to be elite, had faith in their star-studded frontcourt, and trusted their coaching staff. Through 10 games, they look far from scary, as they hold a 4-6 record.
Miami’s offense has been tough to watch, with Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo struggling to share the paint and their shooters not really looking like shooters. However, the offense somehow isn’t the biggest issue, as they can’t guard anything right now and hold the league's fifth-worst defensive rating, finding themselves in the same tier as the Kings, Bulls, Suns, and Bucks.
The Heat's defensive struggles have erased their nightmare label
My fear with this Heat team in a matchup against the Raptors was always their size and how easily they could score in the paint, while still having a strong all-around defensive squad. On paper, a starting unit of Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis, and Bam should be elite defensively. The combination of a really gritty defensive guard in Mitchell, Wiggins as your point-of-attack guy, Thompson as a connector, and Giannis and Bam locking the paint down has serious potential. But Wiggins has really lost a step, and the team's defensive approach has been awful.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat allow the third-lowest frequency of shots at the rim in the NBA. That means teams rarely get shots at the rim against the Heat, but when they do, they’re shooting 67 percent at the rim. So while they're good at limiting opponents' attempts at the basket, once they get there, they aren’t stopping anyone. It also points to what feels like a flawed defensive approach, as with Giannis and Bam in the paint, you’d want to funnel opposing offenses toward them rather than give up threes and jumpers like they have been.
Their bench has also been awful, averaging the fifth-fewest points per game in the league this season. Unlike teams like Atlanta that can rely on other players to step up when their starters are having off nights, the Heat don’t have that luxury with a bench full of missed three-pointers right now.
To be blunt, the Heat have essentially looked like a reincarnation of the last few years of Giannis’ Bucks tenure. They are a team that is awfully mid and needs MVP play every night from Giannis to have any shot at competing or winning games. When you play the Heat, the game plan is simple: if your defense can neutralize Giannis, you win, because no one outside of Mitchell has provided a consistent impact on either end. We’ve seen how well Kawhi Leonard can guard Giannis in the past, and then you throw Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles into the mix as different looks, and the Raptors have the tools to shut him down.
I understand that it’s a long season and we are only 10 games into an 82-game schedule, so the Heat could figure it out. With Erik Spoelstra's track record, it wouldn’t shock me if the conversations about this group are completely different come the trade deadline, so I’m going to say I’m far from fully out on this group. But for right now, the idea that they’d give a Raptors team that also had issues starting the season any type of trouble in a seven-game series is laughable.
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