Well, I clearly airballed with my initial take on Kawhi Leonard coming back to Toronto dialogue. My first thought was that Leonard was using interest from the Raptors to raise his value and get a large extension from Steve Ballmer and the Los Angeles Clippers front office.
And it appears I couldn’t have been more off with that take.
All signs are pointing to Leonard being traded back to Toronto and forming an elite tandem with Scottie Barnes. The potential deal is expected to look something like Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, several first-round picks, and potentially Ja’Kobe Walter for Leonard. That would then be followed by the Klaw doing something he didn’t do after his first run in Toronto: signing a long-term extension to likely finish out his career with the Raptors.
With that deal, Toronto would have a starting five that looks like Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl. That is a very well-rounded, balanced starting five with elite two-way talent, but can it truly make the Raptors championship contenders, as acquiring Leonard in 2018 did? No.
Kawhi Leonard coming to Toronto 2.0 is completely different
The biggest issue with trading for Leonard this summer is that, unlike when he was first brought to Canada in 2018, this Raptors team is a ways away from being title contenders. When Toronto swapped DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and a protected 2019 first-round pick for Leonard and Danny Green, they were in a much different place. The Raptors were coming off three straight 50+ win seasons, made the Conference Finals in 2016, and were a LeBron James-less East away from likely escaping the East.
Comparing that to where they are now is vastly different. Just a year ago, this team was still in a “rebuild” and hadn’t made the postseason for three years. They are also way younger and have nowhere near the experience and depth that the team he joined in 2018 had.
I understand that Leonard played 65 games last season, averaged 27.9 points per game, and was a top-10 player in the league. Swapping him out for Ingram instantly makes this team better—it raises their ceiling to a team that could compete, win 50 games, and make the second round. But it’s not going to just make the Raptors title favorites.
Even with Leonard, the Raptors would still be behind the New York Knicks, likely the Boston Celtics, too, depending on what happens with Jaylen Brown. The team they’d be closest to is the Detroit Pistons, who are coming off a 60+ win season and are led by superstar Cade Cunningham in his prime. Adding Leonard to this core puts Toronto ahead of teams like Cleveland, Orlando, Indiana, Atlanta, and maybe Miami. But there’s still a clear drop off from them to those three top dogs.
I’m not one of those people who’s worried about his health, age, personality, or ability. The Raptors have dealt with all those things with Leonard before, and the same people are in place that can make it happen again. My worry is that trading for Leonard places incredibly unrealistic expectations on this team next season and could set the Raptors up for failure before their season even starts.
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