Toronto Raptors full 2024 NBA Draft Lottery odds

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery is a crucial one for the Toronto Raptors.

Unlike a league like the NFL, which simply orders the draft purely in reverse of the previous season's standings, the NBA utilizes a lottery system. Every team that misses the playoffs is entered in a lottery to win a Top-4 pick. The worse your record the better your odds of leaping into the Top 4, but every team has a shot.

While a more equitable system, the draft lottery means the Toronto Raptors still have a lot of uncertainty regarding thier first-round pick this season. When they traded the San Antonio Spurs for center Jakob Poeltl last February they included a Top-6 protected 2024 first-round pick in the deal.

The Raptors assumed at the time they would be trading a pick in the late teens or early 20s, but a disastrous and depressing season instead landed the Raptors at 25-27, which was exactly the sixth-worst record in the NBA.

Without the lottery, Toronto would be assured of (just barely) keeping its pick and could be assessing draft prospects at the top of the draft. Instead, if a team behind the Raptors in the draft order leaps up into the Top 4 during the lottery, the Raptors will be pushed back to the seventh slot and send the pick to San Antonio.

What are the Raptors' odds of landing at each slot in the draft? Let's break down the numbers for each possible placement ahead of the May 12th NBA Draft Lottery.

Toronto Raptors lottery odds for every possible pick

There are essentially three different paths available for the Raptors in the lottery: move up into the Top 4, stay put at sixth, or fall back to seventh or later. The first two scenarios allow them to keep their pick, while in the third they ship it to the Spurs.

Here are their odds for moving into the Top 4:

Pick No. 1: 9.0 percent
Pick No. 2: 9.2 percent
Pick No. 3: 9.4 percent
Pick No. 4: 9.6 percent

Overall odds of moving into the Top 4: 37.2 percent

In one out of every 11 draft lottery draws, therefore, the Raptors would have the first overall pick. That's not as valuable in a draft without a can't-miss prospect like Victor Wembanyama, but it's always better to pick higher than everyone else. About a third of the time, the Raptors will move up in the draft.

The Raptors have no way to land at No. 5, and in fact their odds of staying put at No. 6 are slim:

Pick No. 6: 8.6 percent

The only way for Toronto to stay put at sixth is for the Top 4 to only be made up of the five worst teams; the Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs.

That means that the Raptors currently have a 45.8 percent chance of retaining their pick by landing in the Top 6.

If a team below them in the draft order leaps above them, here are their odds of landing at each slot behind them:

Pick No. 7: 29.8 percent
Pick No. 8: 20.5 percent
Pick No. 9: 3.7 percent
Pick No. 10: 0.1 percent

Overall odds of losing their pick: 54.2 percent

The single most likely slot for the Raptors' pick to land is at No. 7, which means one team behind them in the draft order leaps them; the Memphis Grizzlies, Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets are most likely to do so. If two of those teams were to move into the Top 4 (as happened in the 2019 Draft Lottery when the New Orleans Pelicans and Grizzlies leapt up) the Raptors would fall to pick No. 8.

The NBA Draft Lottery is on Sunday, May 12th and will decide a lot for the Toronto Raptors.