The Toronto Raptors are guaranteed a spot in the Play-In Tournament next season

The Toronto Raptors might go from 25 wins to postseason this season, don't pass go, don't collect 200 dollars.

Last season was a nightmare for the Raptors. A slow start motivated the front office to move off of OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, and in the process a slew of injuries broke down the ability for this team to play competitive basketball. A record-setting losing streak dropped them into the depths of the lottery, merely putting them in position to give up a Top-10 pick to the San Antonio Spurs from the Jakob Poeltl trade.

It seems reasonable to expect the Raptors to improve next season, if only because their roster will be healthier. Yet things might be breaking in such a way that Toronto will not only be better, but so much better that they will zoom right past the teams around them in the Eastern Conference and earn a postseason bid.

Why the Raptors will be better

The 2023-24 Toronto Raptors went through a startling transformation, then never got to spread their wings as a new core. Of the rotation that opened the season, only Gary Trent Jr. was still available to play during the final two months of the season; everyone else was either traded away or injured. That included significant injuries to Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl, as well as minor injuries and absences for nearly every other player on the roster.

Trent is the only player on the roster to play more than 60 games, appearing in 71 contests last season. The roster was unable to find a rhythm from the trade deadline through to the end of the season, churning through starting lineups and signing players off the street to play in games that same night. Once Barnes went down with a fractured hand on the first day or March, the Raptors would not start the same five players more than two games in a row the rest of the year.

If the Raptors are healthy, however, they should be significantly improved. The four-man lineup of Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl only played 234 minutes together last year, but they had a +10.8 net rating when they did play, by far the best on the team (min 100 minutes). And in the entire league, among 4-man lineups who played at least 225 minutes, the only non-playoff teams with stronger groupings were the Spurs (one Victor Wembanyama group) and the Warriors.

The Raptors' core is also young, so it's reasonable to expect growth from Quickley and Barnes. RJ Barrett is playing the best basketball of his career and is a candidate to be Most Improved this year if he continues that level of play. Gradey Dick should be better as the potential 5th starter, and additions like Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead give Toronto more options defensively on the perimeter.

The Raptors look like a team that will win a lot more than 25 games this season.

Why the East will be worse

Recently we wrote a piece exploring the angle of why the Raptors might want to pull the plug on the season if they get off to a slow start. One of the points we made was that there are so many teams who may want to tank into a strong 2025 draft class, so if the Raptors wanted to get in position they should break for the bottom early.

The problem with that plan is that the rest of the Eastern Conference might be so bad, so quickly, that there is no room for the Raptors to beat anyone else to the bottom. While they didn't go "all-in" this summer, they also didn't make moves that would suggest they will do anything other than try to win games next season. That makes them the exception among the East's bottom half.

The Washington Wizards were terrible last season and moved off of multiple veterans this summer; they'll almost certainly be the worst team in the league. They have stiff competition from the Brooklyn Nets who traded away Mikal Bridges and appear to be locked onto the bottom of the standings. The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets made marginal additions to deep lottery teams.

Even the next level of teams isn't sure to be better than the Raptors next season. The Chicago Bulls traded Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan away from a team that won just 39 games. The Atlanta Hawks moved off of Dejounte Murray and added the No. 1 pick and may not be fully committed to winning this season as they transition the roster.

It's hard to imagine the Pistons, Wizards, Hornets or Nets being better than the Raptors next season; if either Chicago or Atlanta stumbles, or in the case of the Bulls tries to be bad, the Raptors may pass them simply by default of being a functional NBA team.

Toronto looks to be on track for a spot in the Play-In Tournament next season, and they could reach it even if they only win 35 games. The Hawks qualified last season with just 36 wins; by contrast, the 10th seed in the West was the Golden State Warriors, who won 46. The sort belly of the East may force the Raptors right into the postseason.

That's not a terrible outcome, but it also may trick this front office into thinking they have made more progress than they have. Even if the Raptors take a big step and pass the cars around them, they are not ready to compete at the top of the conference. The Raptors need to be patient and build their team with a long view in mind.

Even if they find themselves in the postseason by default.