The Toronto Raptors went 1-2 this past week, losing to the playoff-bound New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves, while beating the lowly Washington Wizards. And to be quite honest, this sample highlighted some concerning trends for Toronto.
What’s wrong with Jamal Shead?
Jamal Shead struggled badly this week. Earlier in the season, I consistently praised Shead for his ability to responsibly lead the offense and control the game. Recently, however, NBA defenses appear to be adjusting to his game.
In the last three games, Shead has averaged 4.3 points, 2.3 assists, and 2.3 turnovers while shooting 27.8% from the field and 16.7% from three. And this slump is no longer just a small sample. Since the beginning of February, he has averaged just 3.9 assists to 1.8 turnovers.
For comparison, before February he was averaging 5.5 assists and 1.3 turnovers. A league-average assist-to-turnover ratio for guards sits around 2.5.
At this point in his career, Shead is a very unique player. Despite his inability to score consistently from anywhere on the floor, he was able to lead the offense through smart decision-making. However, over the last month, that decision-making has become far more questionable.
Shead has turned into a point guard who cannot score consistently and is only an average decision-maker. The offense has stalled when he enters the game. This past week was a clear example of why.
Shead needs to be better going forward.
Raptors must shoot more threes... whether they go in or not
Toronto shot 51.8% from the field over the last three games. The game against Washington boosted that percentage, but Toronto still shot an impressive 47.5% in their two losses while averaging just 101.0 points in those games.
How is a team shooting that well while scoring so few points? The answer: they simply are not attempting enough three-pointers.
The Raptors averaged just 23.7 three-point attempts last week. For reference, the Sacramento Kings attempt the fewest threes per game in the NBA this season at 30.1.
Toronto is not built to be a three-point-heavy team, and it does not necessarily need to be. But the Raptors do need to shoot more threes. Even if they miss many of their additional attempts, simply taking more threes increases the team’s scoring potential. It also creates more space for players to attack inside the arc.
This is not a new or unique idea. The rest of the league has already embraced the value of three-point shooting. Toronto must do the same.
A golden opportunity to respond
This upcoming week presents a good opportunity for Toronto. The Raptors will face the tanking Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans, along with the somewhat struggling Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns.
Toronto is 18-5 against teams with losing records this season, so they should have a good chance to continue that success against Dallas and New Orleans. Their record against winning teams has been far less favorable.
Houston will likely present the toughest challenge of the week, though the Rockets have looked less impressive since losing Steven Adams for the season. Phoenix will also be a difficult matchup, but the Suns will be without Dillon Brooks.
It will not be an easy week, but Toronto will have opportunities. If Toronto wants to remain ahead in the Eastern Conference playoff race, this is the type of stretch it has to take advantage of.