Bleacher Report’s “Final Win-Loss Record Predictions” has the Raptors finishing the season with a 48-37 record. That’s a two-game improvement from last season, but it is only the seventh-best mark in the Eastern Conference in the prediction piece behind the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Considering that the Raptors added Kawhi Leonard in a bold drawn-out trade with the LA Clippers, a mere two-win improvement and a two-spot drop in the standings compared to last season doesn’t sound very good. But the circumstances in the Eastern Conference—and the whole league—have changed significantly.
There’s a lot more talent, especially with the Heat getting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James moving to Philadelphia, and the Indiana Pacers getting Tyrese Haliburton back from injury. Moreover, there will be fewer tanking teams and as a result, fewer guaranteed easy wins. With the new lottery rules, only teams that don’t own their first-round picks can afford not to care about being at least semi-competitive.
So, even though the Raptors are a better team with Leonard back on the roster, their win total may not actually increase much. Plus, Leonard’s availability is a concern, which makes it difficult to project the Raptors as a top team in the regular season. If he’s healthy, they can totally get there, but they may be willing to sacrifice some regular-season wins to ensure that he gets to the playoffs in one piece.
Whether the Raptors can outpace this modest prediction depends entirely on Leonard and his health. The Raptors have enough to still be good, especially defensively, when he is out, but they will need him to be significantly better than last season.
The Raptors aren’t the only Eastern Conference contender with health concerns
The Raptors’ regular-season success isn’t the only one that’s tricky to predict. Other teams have the same availability questions. Tyrese Haliburton is fresh off a devastating injury; Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 36 games last season; LeBron James is 41 years old, and Joel Embiid hasn’t played more than 39 games since the 2022-23 season.
Those teams could all compete for the top of the conference if their stars are healthy—or they could struggle if they cannot escape the injury bug.
The only thing that’s for certain is that the Eastern Conference race will be brutal. Only the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks project to be truly bad. The Knicks, Celtics, Pistons, 76ers, Heat, Cavaliers, Raptors, Pacers, Magic, and Hawks all want to make the playoffs, but two of them will be disappointed—maybe even more if the Charlotte Hornets and/or Washington Wizards can make some noise.
The East was considered the weaker conference for quite some time, but it definitely won’t be weak this season.
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